Catalogue Testing & Verification

In order to overcome the limitations of historical earthquake records, researchers in the Fault Model Construction project are building a catalogue of ‘synthetic’ earthquakes using new technology and methods. Before these catalogues can be relied on by hazard and risk modellers, they need to be rigorously tested and tuned.

We aim to ensure the reliability of the synthetic catalogue by working closely with the researchers creating it to:

• Build tools to analyse and evaluate the synthetic catalogue and its alignment with existing earthquake data.
• Test the sensitivity of the results to changes in model inputs and different modelling approaches.
• Develop hazard forecasts that use the catalogue to determine probabilities of exceeding specific ground-shaking thresholds.
• Optimise the catalogues by using test results to improve the accuracy of the earthquake simulators.
• Explore machine learning and artificial intelligence methods to help speed up the evaluation process.

Our goal is to provide hazard and risk modellers with a reliable earthquake catalogue that can be used to develop improved earthquake and tsunami hazard models.